Wednesday, February 28, 2007

The Worst of the Best- Eastern Conference

So I called the NBA league office today, and they confirmed for me that by rule, eight teams must make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, regardless of quality.* Same for the Western Conference, except the caliber of ordinariness is substantially higher. In both, the prospect of a sub .500 squad cracking the golden ocho is a lot easier to wrap your head around than, say, a scoring title for Adonal Foyle. But which semi-average team is the most semi-averagetacular? In the W.C., seeds 1-6 are as close to mortal locks as can be with 20 + games to go. Heading eastward, everyone Chicago and north (standings wise, not geographically) is safe. So what teams will "earn" the right to be eliminated by the NBA's quality squads? Let's break down the odds of qualifying for the postseason, starting with the East:

*The call didn't actually happen, but writing it allows me to be extra snarky in my evaluation of the East. I'm that edgy.

Since an 8-2 run can vault one team over about six others, just about everyone is theoretically alive. Just about.

Boston (1,000,000,000-1): No conference is that bad.
Philadelphia, Milwaukee (10,000-1): Impressive as the Sixers two game win streak (including a Vegas busting upset of the Suns Wednesday night) has been, they'll need more than Willie Green power to get them in. As for the Bucks, I saw Bobby Simmons at the post office on Beverly last week. Since they're not making the playoffs, I thought I'd mention it.
Atlanta, Charlotte (1,000-1): With identical 22-36 records and chasing the NBA equivalent of MEAC teams, it's not unlikely but not inconceivable that one of these teams could threaten the top eight. Or they could play for more ping pong balls in the Oden/Durant sweepstakes. I recommend the latter. Really, if either one of these teams tanked, would anyone notice?
New York (10-1): Nothing like the world of low expectations. Even if Isiah doesn't get his lads in the playoffs, a 35 win season could be enough to keep him around. It's a perfect mix for sportswriters- no postseason, and the door will be open to more "That's just Zeke being Zeke" personnel moves this summer.
Orlando (8-1): Earlier in the year when Brian Hill's gang were the Next Big Thing in the E.C., this sort of fade seemed unlikely. Then they went 6-17 over their last 23 games. Looks like Dwight Howard's sticker dunk is destined to be the only highlight of the second half.
New Jersey (4-1): Richard Jefferson's on the shelf with Nenad Kristic, and Jason Kidd seems about a dribble or two away from joining them. Bad back, bad ribs, bad divorce? That's a lot to lug around. Still, Jersey has the inside track for the eight spot, the right to be wiped out by Detroit, and a chance to blow it all up this summer.
Miami (3-1): The "D-Wade's gone, but we're okay!" stretch should last about three more games before Miami comes back to Earth and Pat Riley's hip starts acting up again. The only saving grace for the Heat is that Shaq has played so little this year, little has been used from the half-tank he allots to the regular season.
Indiana (1-1): If I'm a GM, I want Danny Granger on my team. But as good as he is, the Pacers are fine only as long as Jermaine O'Neal stays healthy. Once he goes down, then they're a team built around Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy. Those guys are Warriors, and everyone knows Warriors don't make the playoffs.

Up next? The odds on seeds seven and eight in the Western Conference.

BK

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